Examining Excess Mortality Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic for Renters Threatened With Eviction.

Importance: Residential evictions may have increased excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To estimate excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for renters who received eviction filings (threatened renters). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used an excess mortality framework. Mortality based on linked eviction and death records from 2020 through 2021 was compared with projected mortality estimated from similar records from 2010 through 2016. Data from court records between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, were collected via the Eviction Lab's Eviction Tracking System. Similar data from court records between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016, also collected by the Eviction Lab, were used to estimate projected mortality during the pandemic. We also constructed 2 comparison groups: all individuals living in the study area and a subsample of those individuals living in high-poverty, high-filing tracts. Exposures: Eviction filing. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality in a given month. The difference between observed mortality and projected mortality was used as a measure of excess mortality associated with the pandemic. Results: The cohort of threatened renters during the pandemic period consisted of 282 000 individuals (median age, 36 years [IQR, 28-47]). Eviction filings were 44.7% lower than expected during the study period. The composition of threatened renters by race, ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics during the pandemic was comparable with the prepandemic composition. Expected cumulative age-standardized mortality among threatened renters during this 20-month period of the pandemic was 116.5 (95% CI, 104.0-130.3) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 238.6 (95% CI, 230.8-246.3) per 100 000 person-months or 106% higher than expected. In contrast, expected mortality for the population living in similar neighborhoods was 114.6 (95% CI, 112.1-116.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 142.8 (95% CI, 140.2-145.3) per 100 000 person-months or 25% higher than expected. In the general population across the study area, expected mortality was 83.5 (95% CI, 83.3-83.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 91.6 (95% CI, 91.4-91.8) per 100 000 person-months or 9% higher than expected. The pandemic produced positive excess mortality ratios across all age groups among threatened renters. Conclusions and Relevance: Renters who received eviction filings experienced substantial excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Beyond Gentrification: Housing Loss, Poverty, and the Geography of Displacement.

We assess the relationship between gentrification and a key form of displacement: eviction. Drawing on over six million court cases filed in 72 of the largest metropolitan areas across the United States between 2000 and 2016, we show that most evictions occurred in low-income neighborhoods that did not gentrify. Over time, eviction rates decreased more in gentrifying neighborhoods than in comparable low-income neighborhoods. Results were robust to multiple specifications and alternative measures of gentrification. The findings of this study imply that focusing on gentrifying neighborhoods as the primary site of displacement risks overlooking most instances of forced removal. Disadvantaged communities experienced displacement pressures when they underwent gentrification and when they did not. Eviction is not a passing trend in low-income neighborhoods-one that comes and goes as gentrification accelerates and decelerates-but a durable component of neighborhood disadvantage.

A comprehensive demographic profile of the US evicted population.

Millions of American renter households every year are threatened with eviction, an event associated with severe negative impacts on health and economic well-being. Yet we know little about the characteristics of individuals living in these households. Here, we link 38 million eviction court cases to US Census Bureau data to show that 7.6 million people, including 2.9 million children, faced the threat of eviction each year between 2007 and 2016. Overall, adult renters living with at least one child in their home were threatened with eviction at an annual rate of 10.4%, twice that of adults without children (5.0%). We demonstrate not only that the average evicted household includes one child, but that the most common age to experience eviction in America is during childhood. We also find that previous studies have underestimated racial disparities in eviction risk: Despite making up only 18.6% of all renters, Black Americans account for 51.1% of those affected by eviction filings and 43.4% of those evicted. Roughly one in five Black Americans living in a renter household is threatened with eviction annually, while one in ten is evicted. Black-White disparities persist across levels of income and vary by state. In providing the most comprehensive description to date of the population of US renters facing eviction, our study reveals a significant undercount of individuals impacted by eviction and motivates policies designed to stabilize housing for children and families.

Characterizing Long-Term Trajectories of Work and Disability Leave: The Role of Occupational Exposures, Health, and Personal Demographics.

OBJECTIVE: This article characterizes trajectories of work and disability leave across the tenure of a cohort of 49,595 employees in a large American manufacturing firm. METHODS: We employ sequence and cluster analysis to group workers who share similar trajectories of work and disability leave. We then use multinomial logistic regression models to describe the demographic, health, and job-specific correlates of these trajectories. RESULTS: All workers were clustered into one of eight trajectories. Female workers (RR 1.3 to 2.1), those experiencing musculoskeletal disease (RR 1.3 to 1.5), and those whose jobs entailed exposure to high levels of air pollution (total particulate matter; RR 1.9 to 2.4) were more likely to experience at least one disability episode. CONCLUSIONS: These trajectories and their correlates provide insight into disability processes and their relationship to demographic characteristics, health, and working conditions of employees.

Cumulative Risks of Multiple Criminal Justice Outcomes in New York City.

Previous research has provided estimates of the cumulative risk of felony conviction and imprisonment in the United States. These experiences are, however, also the rarest; most of what happens in the criminal justice system occurs at the level of the misdemeanor rather than the felony. This article addresses our limited understanding of the scope of subfelony justice by providing estimates of the cumulative risk of several lower-level arrest outcomes for one jurisdiction: New York City. Because of excess life table events contributed by nonresidents of New York City, estimates are likely upwardly biased relative to the true values. Nonetheless, they allow us to (1) assess the cumulative risk of misdemeanor conviction and jail sentences and (2) determine to what extent those who enter the world of subfelony justice are distinct from those with felony or imprisonment records.

Cultural Mechanisms in Neighborhood Effects Research in the United States.

This paper discusses the current state of the U.S. literature on cultural mechanisms in neighborhood effects research. We first define what we mean by neighborhood effects and by cultural mechanisms. We then review and critique two theoretical perspectives on the cultural context of disadvantaged neighborhoods that are explicitly integrated into recent neighborhood effects literature in the U.S.: "deviant subculture" and "cultural heterogeneity." We then draw on other related U.S. literatures from urban studies, cultural sociology, and culture and inequality to suggest some other conceptualizations that may be useful in advancing our understanding of the role of culture in neighborhood effects. We discuss the conceptual and methodological issues that will have to be grappled with in order to move this literature forward and conclude by offering concrete suggestions, both short-term and long-term, for a research agenda.

Sequential extension of proliferative lifespan in human fibroblasts induced by over-expression of CDK4 or 6 and loss of p53 function.

Replicative senescence is thought to be a significant barrier to human tumorigenesis, which in human fibroblasts, and many other cell types, can be overcome experimentally by combined loss of function of p53 and Rb 'pathways'. To avoid the confounding pleiotropic effects of HPVE7 frequently used in such studies, here we have employed retroviral vectors over-expressing CDK4 or CDK6 as a more representative model of naturally-occurring mutations targeting the Rb pathway. We show that these can extend fibroblast lifespan by approximately 10 population doublings, ending in a viable senescence-like state which contrasts with the apoptotic end-stage seen with E7. Compared with 'normal' senescence, this growth arrest was, in most cases, not accompanied by any further increase in p21(Waf1) levels but with up to a 19-fold increase in p16(Ink4a). Surprisingly however, this could not explain arrest, since expression of mutant CDK4 and/or CDK6, incapable of binding p16(Ink4a), did not confer any greater lifespan extension than the wild-type CDKs. Subsequent abrogation of p53 function by a second vector, encoding HPVE6, downregulated p21(Waf1) and conferred a second lifespan extension, ending in a crisis-like state, consistent with full escape from senescence. These data: (i) point to a back-up 'senescence' mechanism distinct from induction of p21(Waf1) or p16(Ink4a); and (ii) provide an in vitro model of clonal evolution through successive dysfunction of Rb and p53 pathways in a relevant human cell context.